Free Football Predictions – Accurate Tips & Odds

Monday, August 24, 2026
103 matches today 100+ leagues 🎯 52% accuracy (46/89)

Browse today's football predictions, match odds, confidence ratings, and key stats across major leagues. Save fixtures with the ☆ star and view them later on My Selection.

BETZENA · Sponsored Football Predictions That Go Beyond Guesswork. Daily predictions • Match analysis • Smart picks View Tips →
Italy flag Italy : Serie A
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Bologna Lazio 24/08/2026 16:30
2.15
3.10
3.50
2 55%
Un1.5
0-1 (0-0)
AS Roma Fiorentina 24/08/2026 18:45
1.65
3.75
5.00
1 70%
Un1.5
4-0 (1-0)
Spain flag Spain : La Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Osasuna Levante 24/08/2026 17:30
1.80
3.50
4.33
1 75%
Un3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Malaga Deportivo La Coruna 24/08/2026 19:30
2.45
2.90
3.20
1 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (1-1)
England flag England : Premier League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Fulham Chelsea 24/08/2026 19:00
3.80
3.75
1.85
2 75%
Un1.5
2-3 (1-2)
Portugal flag Portugal : Primeira Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
GIL Vicente Casa Pia 24/08/2026 19:15
1.73
3.40
4.80
1 75%
Un3.5
2-0 (2-0)
USA flag USA : NWSL Women
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Angel City W NJNY Gotham FC W 24/08/2026 00:00
3.30
3.30
2.05
2 60%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Ecuador flag Ecuador : Liga Pro
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
LDU de Quito Emelec 24/08/2026 00:00
1.55
3.50
5.00
1 80%
Ov1.5
2-0 (2-0)
Costa-Rica flag Costa-Rica : Primera División
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
LD Alajuelense San Carlos 24/08/2026 00:00
1.40
4.20
7.00
1 70%
Un2.5
0-1 (0-0)
Guatemala flag Guatemala : Liga Nacional
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Marquense Cobán Imperial 24/08/2026 00:00
1.80
3.25
4.20
1 70%
Ov2.5
2-1 (2-0)
Malacateco Deportivo San Pedro 24/08/2026 02:00
1.33
4.75
7.00
1 75%
Un3.5
2-0 (1-0)
Mexico flag Mexico : Liga MX Femenil
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Necaxa W América W 24/08/2026 00:06
39.00
13.50
1.03
2 80%
Ov3.5
0-7 (0-5)
Argentina flag Argentina : Liga Profesional Argentina
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Racing Club Boca Juniors 24/08/2026 00:30
3.25
2.80
2.38
1 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (1-1)
Tigre Central Cordoba de Santiago 24/08/2026 22:00
1.57
3.40
6.50
1 80%
Ov1.5
1-0 (1-0)
USA flag USA : MLS Next Pro
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Austin II The Town 24/08/2026 00:30
1.75
3.60
3.65
1 70%
Un3.5
1-0 (0-0)
Colorado Rapids II Real Monarchs 24/08/2026 00:38
2.00
3.60
2.90
1 55%
Un3.5
4-1 (1-0)
Ventura County Portland Timbers II 24/08/2026 02:00
2.50
3.70
2.25
1 55%
Un3.5
2-2 (1-1)
Mexico flag Mexico : Liga De Expansión MX
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Tapatío Mineros de Zacatecas 24/08/2026 01:00
2.10
3.40
2.90
2 55%
Ov3.5
4-2 (2-0)
Mexico flag Mexico : Liga MX
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Necaxa 24/08/2026 01:00
1.91
3.20
3.40
1 70%
Un3.5
1-1 (0-0)
Nicaragua flag Nicaragua : Primera Division
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Walter Ferretti UNAN Managua 24/08/2026 01:00
1.75
3.30
4.00
1 80%
Ov2.5
0-1 (0-0)
Colombia flag Colombia : Primera A
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Junior Once Caldas 24/08/2026 01:15
2.00
3.20
3.60
1 55%
Ov2.5
1-1 (0-0)
India flag India : Calcutta Premier Division
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Aryan Rainbow 24/08/2026 09:30
1.73
3.45
3.95
1 75%
Ov2.5
5-0 (2-0)
Calcutta Police Kalighat Club 24/08/2026 09:30
1.75
3.10
4.40
1 80%
Ov1.5
3-0 (1-0)
Uzbekistan flag Uzbekistan : Super League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Kokand-1912 Buxoro 24/08/2026 14:00
2.40
2.88
2.70
2 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (0-0)
Qatar flag Qatar : Second Division
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Al Mesaimeer Muaither SC 24/08/2026 14:15
2.60
3.50
2.25
2 60%
Un1.5
1-0 (0-0)
Greece flag Greece : Cup
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Ellas Syros Marko 24/08/2026 14:30
16.00
4.20
1.25
2 80%
Un1.5
?-?
Belarus flag Belarus : Premier League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
FC Isloch Minsk R. Dinamo Minsk 24/08/2026 14:30
3.40
2.75
2.20
2 55%
Ov2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Torpedo Zhodino FC Dnepr Mogilev 24/08/2026 17:30
1.75
3.20
4.50
1 80%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Russia flag Russia : First League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
KAMAZ FC Sochi 24/08/2026 14:30
4.05
3.48
1.84
2 70%
Ov2.5
2-3 (2-1)
Rotor Volgograd FK Neftekhimik 24/08/2026 15:30
1.60
3.58
5.70
1 75%
Ov2.5
0-1 (0-0)
Veles Arsenal Tula 24/08/2026 16:30
3.05
3.05
2.36
1 55%
Ov2.5
2-0 (1-0)
Nizhny Novgorod Ska-khabarovsk 24/08/2026 17:00
1.28
4.85
10.50
1 85%
Un3.5
4-2 (3-1)
Macedonia flag Macedonia : First League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Vardar Skopje Sileks 24/08/2026 15:00
1.65
3.60
4.33
1 70%
Ov2.5
4-1 (1-1)
Serbia flag Serbia : Prva Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Naftagas Grafičar 24/08/2026 15:00
2.30
3.00
2.90
2 55%
Un2.5
2-1 (0-1)
Semendrija 1924 Teleoptik 24/08/2026 15:00
1.50
4.10
5.00
1 75%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-0)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Javor 24/08/2026 18:00
2.30
3.25
2.70
2 55%
Ov3.5
2-2 (2-1)
Slovakia flag Slovakia : 2. Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Lokomotíva Zvolen Petržalka 24/08/2026 15:00
3.65
3.45
1.85
2 80%
Ov2.5
0-1 (0-1)
Italy flag Italy : Campionato Primavera 1
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Hellas Verona U20 Cesena U20 24/08/2026 15:00
2.50
3.25
2.38
1 65%
Un1.5
0-1 (0-0)
Bulgaria flag Bulgaria : Second League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Vihren Fratria 24/08/2026 15:00
2.20
3.20
2.88
2 55%
Un2.5
2-2 (1-0)
Iran flag Iran : Persian Gulf Pro League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Tractor Sazi Persepolis FC 24/08/2026 15:00
2.27
3.08
2.90
1 55%
Ov2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Kheybar Khorramabad Paykan 24/08/2026 16:00
2.56
2.56
3.12
1 55%
Ov1.5
2-3 (1-1)
Malavan Fajr Sepasi 24/08/2026 16:00
2.27
3.05
3.10
1 55%
Ov1.5
0-1 (0-0)
ZOB Ahan Mes Shahr-e Babak 24/08/2026 16:00
2.25
3.05
3.15
1 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (0-0)
Gol Gohar Chadormalu SC 24/08/2026 16:30
2.49
3.05
2.62
1 55%
Un1.5
3-0 (1-0)
Sanat Naft Foolad FC 24/08/2026 17:00
4.10
3.15
1.90
2 75%
Un1.5
0-3 (0-3)
Estonia flag Estonia : Esiliiga A
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Elva Flora II 24/08/2026 15:30
2.10
4.00
2.60
2 55%
Ov3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Tallinna Kalev Maardu 24/08/2026 16:00
1.80
4.20
3.10
1 80%
Ov3.5
1-3 (0-2)
Viimsi Nõmme United II 24/08/2026 16:00
1.44
4.75
4.75
1 75%
Un3.5
4-1 (0-0)
Romania flag Romania : Liga I
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
FC Botosani Csikszereda 24/08/2026 15:30
1.65
3.60
4.80
1 80%
Ov2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Oţelul Arges Pitesti 24/08/2026 18:30
2.45
2.80
3.10
2 55%
Ov1.5
1-0 (0-0)
Israel flag Israel : Liga Leumit
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Maccabi Kiryat Gat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 24/08/2026 16:00
2.90
3.20
2.25
2 55%
Un2.5
1-2 (0-1)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Hapoel Afula 24/08/2026 16:00
2.55
3.25
2.50
2 55%
Un2.5
0-1 (0-1)
Estonia flag Estonia : Esiliiga B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Levadia U19 Legion 24/08/2026 16:00
1.10
9.00
15.00
1 80%
Ov3.5
1-0 (0-0)
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 JK Tabasalu 24/08/2026 16:00
1.62
4.75
3.60
1 80%
Ov3.5
6-0 (4-0)
Germany flag Germany : DFB Pokal
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Altglienicke VfL Wolfsburg 24/08/2026 16:00
13.00
7.00
1.17
2 80%
Un1.5
3-3 (1-0)
Verl Hamburger SV 24/08/2026 16:00
5.00
4.60
1.44
2 80%
Un1.5
0-3 (0-1)
Würzburger Kickers 1. FC Köln 24/08/2026 16:00
8.00
5.00
1.30
2 75%
Un1.5
1-2 (1-0)
Hallescher FC FC Schalke 04 24/08/2026 18:45
8.00
5.00
1.30
2 70%
Un1.5
2-5
Bulgaria flag Bulgaria : First League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Botev Vratsa Botev Plovdiv 24/08/2026 16:00
3.45
3.30
1.95
2 80%
Un3.5
1-0 (1-0)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Arda Kardzhali 24/08/2026 18:15
4.10
3.10
1.85
2 80%
Un2.5
0-1 (0-0)
Saudi-Arabia flag Saudi-Arabia : Pro League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
NEOM Al-Qadisiyah FC 24/08/2026 16:40
5.00
4.20
1.60
2 70%
Ov2.5
0-2 (0-1)
Sweden flag Sweden : Allsvenskan
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Malmo FF Djurgardens IF 24/08/2026 17:00
2.62
3.40
2.40
1 55%
Un3.5
0-3 (0-1)
Sweden flag Sweden : Superettan
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Ostersunds FK Ljungskile SK 24/08/2026 17:00
1.85
3.25
3.70
1 75%
Ov2.5
0-0 (0-0)
IFK Varnamo Landskrona BoIS 24/08/2026 17:00
2.25
3.20
2.75
1 55%
Ov2.5
1-1 (1-0)
IFK Norrkoping Falkenbergs FF 24/08/2026 17:05
1.57
3.90
4.75
1 80%
Ov2.5
2-1 (2-0)
Sweden flag Sweden : Ettan Södra
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Hässleholms IF Laholm 24/08/2026 17:00
1.64
3.80
4.50
1 80%
Un3.5
2-1 (2-0)
Denmark flag Denmark : Superliga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Brondby Silkeborg 24/08/2026 17:00
1.40
4.50
6.00
1 85%
Un2.5
3-1 (0-1)
Israel flag Israel : Ligat Ha'al
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Maccabi Netanya Bnei Sakhnin 24/08/2026 17:00
1.60
4.20
3.90
1 70%
Un1.5
0-0 (0-0)
Poland flag Poland : I Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Stal Rzeszów Ruch Chorzów 24/08/2026 17:00
3.65
3.65
1.80
2 75%
Ov2.5
0-1 (0-1)
Spain flag Spain : Segunda División
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Granada CF Mallorca 24/08/2026 19:30
2.90
2.88
2.45
1 55%
Un1.5
2-0 (1-0)
Portugal flag Portugal : Segunda Liga
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Farense Felgueiras 1932 24/08/2026 17:00
2.05
2.88
3.60
1 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (0-1)
Feirense FC Porto B 24/08/2026 19:15
2.05
3.00
3.40
1 60%
Ov1.5
0-1 (0-1)
Russia flag Russia : Premier League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Baltika Rubin 24/08/2026 17:30
2.08
3.28
3.90
1 55%
Ov2.5
1-1 (0-1)
Argentina flag Argentina : Primera C
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Centro Español Estrella Del Sur 24/08/2026 18:00
2.65
2.85
2.65
2 55%
Un2.5
2-0 (0-0)
Netherlands flag Netherlands : Eerste Divisie
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Jong PSV U21 FC OSS 24/08/2026 18:00
1.65
4.00
4.40
1 75%
Ov3.5
1-0 (1-0)
Jong Utrecht Heracles 24/08/2026 18:00
4.80
4.00
1.57
2 70%
Ov3.5
1-6 (0-5)
England flag England : Premier League 2 Division One
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Manchester United U21 Ipswich Town U21 24/08/2026 18:00
1.60
4.20
4.20
1 70%
Un1.5
5-0 (4-0)
Newcastle United U21 Tottenham Hotspur U21 24/08/2026 18:00
2.65
3.80
2.15
2 60%
Un1.5
1-3 (1-1)
Reading U21 Derby County U21 24/08/2026 18:00
2.00
4.00
2.85
2 55%
Un1.5
1-3 (0-1)
Sunderland U21 Nottingham Forest U21 24/08/2026 18:00
2.62
3.75
2.20
1 55%
Un1.5
5-1 (1-0)
Turkey flag Turkey : Süper Lig
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Kocaelispor Amed 24/08/2026 18:30
2.15
3.10
3.25
2 60%
Ov2.5
2-0 (1-0)
Turkey flag Turkey : 1. Lig
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Sivasspor Manisa F.K. 24/08/2026 18:30
1.95
3.45
3.30
1 70%
Ov2.5
2-2 (2-1)
Italy flag Italy : Serie C Girone B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Livorno Torres 24/08/2026 18:30
2.15
2.75
3.30
2 55%
Un1.5
2-1 (1-1)
Reggiana Ravenna 24/08/2026 19:00
2.15
3.20
3.10
1 65%
Un1.5
1-1 (1-0)
France flag France : Ligue 2
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Reims Annecy 24/08/2026 18:45
1.91
3.60
3.50
1 80%
Un2.5
3-1 (0-1)
Argentina flag Argentina : Primera Nacional
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Club Atlético Güemes Atletico DE Rafaela 24/08/2026 19:00
2.38
2.75
3.20
2 55%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Ferro Carril Oeste All Boys 24/08/2026 23:00
1.64
3.10
5.80
1 85%
Ov1.5
?-?
Portugal flag Portugal : Liga Revelação U23
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Sporting Braga U23 Gil Vicente U23 24/08/2026 19:00
2.05
3.10
3.10
1 55%
Ov3.5
1-0 (0-0)
Italy flag Italy : Serie C Girone C
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Team Altamura SS Monopoli 24/08/2026 19:00
3.10
2.90
2.30
2 55%
Un1.5
1-0 (1-0)
Crotone Foggia 24/08/2026 19:00
1.85
3.30
3.85
1 80%
Un1.5
0-1 (0-1)
Salernitana Sorrento 24/08/2026 19:00
1.53
3.65
5.60
1 75%
Un1.5
1-2 (1-1)
Paraguay flag Paraguay : Division Profesional Clausura
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Luqueno 24/08/2026 19:00
1.80
3.30
4.20
1 80%
Ov2.5
2-0 (1-0)
Libertad Asuncion Club Sp. San Lorenzo 24/08/2026 21:30
1.36
4.40
7.50
1 75%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Iceland flag Iceland : Úrvalsdeild
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Breidablik Fram Reykjavik 24/08/2026 19:15
2.50
4.00
2.25
2 55%
Ov3.5
3-4 (1-4)
Colombia flag Colombia : Primera B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Leones FC Real Cartagena 24/08/2026 22:00
3.70
3.10
1.95
2 70%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Orsomarso Real Cundinamarca 24/08/2026 22:00
2.45
2.90
2.90
2 55%
Un2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Peru flag Peru : Segunda División
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Alianza Universidad Bentín Tacna Heroica 24/08/2026 20:00
2.15
3.10
3.10
2 55%
Un2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Paraguay flag Paraguay : Division Intermedia
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
12 de Junio VH Paraguari AC 24/08/2026 21:30
1.73
3.40
4.50
1 80%
Un2.5
1-1 (1-1)
Brazil flag Brazil : Serie B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Athletic Club Novorizontino 24/08/2026 22:30
2.90
2.80
2.50
2 55%
Un2.5
?-?
Sport Recife America Mineiro 24/08/2026 22:30
1.62
3.50
5.00
1 85%
Un2.5
?-?
Brazil flag Brazil : Serie A
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Botafogo Atletico Paranaense 24/08/2026 23:00
2.20
3.10
3.10
2 55%
Ov2.5
?-?
Chile flag Chile : Primera División
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Everton de Vina Universidad de Concepcion 24/08/2026 23:30
1.67
3.70
4.00
1 70%
Un2.5
?-?
Chile flag Chile : Primera B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
San Luis Santiago Wanderers 24/08/2026 23:30
1.95
3.40
3.35
1 75%
Ov2.5
?-?
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Editorial & Statistical Review: All match analysis is reviewed by the Supatips Football Analytics Team, led by Ade Ola. Predictions represent statistical probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly.
AO

Written & Reviewed by

Ade Ola — Lead Football Analyst, Supatips

Ade has spent years building statistical models for football matches, with a focus on probability-led analysis over gut-feel tipster culture. He reviews every page on Supatips before publication and writes the methodology guides. Read full bio →

How Supatips Works

Every day, Supatips pulls fixture data across 100+ leagues and runs each match through a probability model that considers recent form, home and away records, attacking and defensive output, and bookmaker pricing signals. The result is a 1X2 probability split — home win, draw, away win — alongside a confidence rating and a goals-market view.

The table above shows today's 103 fixtures. Each row displays the odds, the model's preferred outcome, and a confidence percentage. Finished matches show a ✓ or ✗ marker so you can see how the picks held up. So far today, 46 of 89 settled predictions have been correct — a 52% rate on finished matches.

A higher confidence percentage means the model leans more strongly toward one outcome, not that the result is certain. Use the figures as a guide, not a guarantee.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

The odds column shows the market price for home win (1), draw (X), and away win (2). The highlighted odds box is the one the model backs. Confidence runs from roughly 33% (perfectly even three-way split) up to around 75%+ for very one-sided fixtures. A match sitting at 40–45% confidence is genuinely close — the model has a preference but not a strong one.

The goals column shows whether the model expects a high-scoring or tight game, useful for readers interested in over/under markets. You can click through to dedicated markets — Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score — for a deeper view of each fixture.

How the Model Is Built

The core of the analysis is a Poisson-based probability model calibrated on attack and defence strength for each team. It factors in home advantage, which historically adds around 0.3–0.4 goals per game at most levels. Form weighting means recent results carry more influence than older ones, and the model cross-checks its output against market pricing to flag cases where there may be value on one side.

This is not a tipping service built on opinion. The page does not pick teams based on reputation, support base, or hype. If a smaller side has the statistical edge in a given match, that is what the model shows — and that transparency is the point.

Expected Goals (xG) and Fixture Context

Where xG data is available it feeds into the model's assessment of attacking quality — a team creating 2.1 xG per game is genuinely dangerous, even if their recent scoreline looks modest. Alongside this, fixture context matters: a team rotating heavily ahead of a cup game reads differently to a full-strength side with nothing to manage.

Saving Matches and Building Your Own View

The ☆ star button next to each fixture lets you save it to My Selection. Your saved fixtures are stored in your browser so they persist across sessions. This is useful if you want to track a handful of matches through the day without scrolling back through the full table.

Other Markets Worth Exploring

The 1X2 result market is only one way to look at a fixture. Supatips also covers a range of other markets, each with its own analysis page:

A Note on Responsible Gambling

⚠️ Please take a moment to read this.

Supatips is an analytical and informational service. The predictions here are probability estimates — not financial advice, not tips from an insider, and definitely not guarantees of any result.

Football is unpredictable by nature. A 70% confidence figure still means the model is wrong roughly three times in ten. Over a long run, statistical models add structure to decision-making — but no model eliminates uncertainty.

If you choose to use these predictions alongside betting, please keep the following in mind:

  • Only stake money you are genuinely comfortable losing.
  • Set a hard budget and treat it as a fixed entertainment cost — not an investment.
  • Never chase a loss. A bad run does not mean a correction is due.
  • Take breaks. If betting stops feeling enjoyable, step back.
  • These predictions are one input — your own judgement matters too.

Free support is available if gambling is causing concern:

🔞 18+ only. Check that sports betting is legal in your country before placing any wager.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are the predictions on Supatips free?

Yes — everything on this page is free. The full fixture table, odds, confidence ratings, and goals-market data are all published without a paywall. Some additional content is available for registered users.

How often is the page updated?

The fixture table refreshes throughout the day. Scores and result markers update as matches finish, so the accuracy tracker at the top of the page reflects live data rather than just predictions made before kick-off.

What does the confidence percentage mean?

It is the model's estimated probability for the predicted outcome — the highest of the three 1X2 probabilities. A 58% confidence home win means the model puts a 58% chance on that result, with the remaining 42% split between draw and away win. It is not a certainty; it is a measure of how one-sided the model sees the fixture.

What does 180 Predictions and Stats refer to?

It describes the breadth of Supatips' match coverage — not just a single result tip per game, but analysis across multiple angles: result, goals, BTTS, HT/FT, correct score, and double chance. The idea is to give readers a fuller statistical picture of each fixture rather than one number to bet on.

How do I save matches to My Selection?

Tap the ☆ star icon on any match row. Saved fixtures move to My Selection, which stores your picks in the browser so they are still there when you come back later.

Why does the model sometimes back the underdog?

The model does not factor in team reputation, shirt colour, or public opinion — only statistical signals. If a smaller club has better recent form, a stronger defensive record, and home advantage, the numbers may favour them over a bigger name that is struggling for form. That is part of the point: the analysis tries to be honest with the data rather than follow the crowd.